Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.021481 0.024375 0.027522 0.031200 0.035381 0.039989 0.045456
2025-05-25 0.016447 0.020307 0.024875 0.030686 0.037891 0.046545 0.057750
2025-06-01 0.014077 0.018405 0.023829 0.031140 0.040759 0.053012 0.069861
2025-06-08 0.012161 0.016659 0.022567 0.030915 0.042444 0.057859 0.080131
2025-06-15 0.011082 0.015808 0.022274 0.031796 0.045516 0.064653 0.093529
2025-06-22 0.009624 0.014227 0.020755 0.030726 0.045640 0.067239 0.101111
2025-06-29 0.008613 0.013155 0.019811 0.030321 0.046592 0.070980 0.110608
2025-07-06 0.007605 0.011967 0.018555 0.029281 0.046420 0.072938 0.117456
2025-07-13 0.007232 0.011709 0.018668 0.030335 0.049552 0.080201 0.133300
2025-07-20 0.006836 0.011369 0.018607 0.031082 0.052222 0.086920 0.148844
2025-07-27 0.006524 0.011130 0.018676 0.032027 0.055275 0.094491 0.166493
2025-08-03 0.006038 0.010548 0.018118 0.031844 0.056366 0.098807 0.178838
2025-08-10 0.005624 0.010064 0.017699 0.031892 0.057910 0.104124 0.193661
2025-08-17 0.005165 0.009459 0.017018 0.031409 0.058458 0.107726 0.205714
2025-08-24 0.004896 0.009170 0.016868 0.031872 0.060767 0.114710 0.224784
2025-08-31 0.004555 0.008717 0.016376 0.031642 0.061730 0.119233 0.239480
2025-09-07 0.004395 0.008589 0.016475 0.032544 0.064951 0.128342 0.264163
2025-09-14 0.004002 0.007976 0.015598 0.031448 0.064101 0.129367 0.272398
2025-09-21 0.003726 0.007570 0.015086 0.031033 0.064581 0.133070 0.286541
2025-09-28 0.003404 0.007043 0.014292 0.029969 0.063613 0.133703 0.294136
2025-10-05 0.003331 0.007022 0.014517 0.031048 0.067265 0.144309 0.324578
2025-10-12 0.003229 0.006933 0.014592 0.031813 0.070299 0.153846 0.353543
2025-10-19 0.003152 0.006888 0.014756 0.032780 0.073861 0.164835 0.386901